Rose Bowl
Oregon (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)
Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1, 2014
And while the focus will rightfully be on the two stellar signal callers, it should be on the defenses.
Both of these defenses have struggled with consistency this season. Florida State’s defense has been almost nonexistent in most of the first halves the Seminoles have played this year, but have rebounded to have stellar second-half performances to secure victories.
Oregon’s defense ranked 82nd in the country allowing 413.8 yards per game, but only 22.5 points per game. The Ducks had their best performance of the year in the Pac-12 title game when it limited Arizona 224 yards and just 13 points.
The Ducks will be without star cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who suffered a torn ACL during practice earlier this month. But, Oregon plays a lot of guys on defense and some of their lopsided wins have allowed backups to get key playing time and experience.
There’s no doubt Florida State and Oregon are going to be able to score, it’s just a matter of which defense is going to be able to limit that scoring.
So far this season, few teams have been able to limit Mariota, who thrown for 3,783 yards with 38 touchdowns and just two interceptions. There is no quarterback more efficient than Mariota. And when he’s not beating teams with his arm, he’s rushing for 669 yards and another 14 scores.
Winston hasn’t been nearly as precise as he was a year ago. The sophomore has thrown for 3,559 yards and 24 touchdowns, but he’s also thrown 17 interceptions, which is 10 more than he threw a year ago as a first-time starter. Still, he’s worked wonders for the Florida State offense this season by bringing them back from multiple-touchdown deficits to keep his undefeated streak alive. Winston still has never lost a game in his collegiate career.
The biggest difference between these two teams will be pace of play. Oregon likes to jump on its opponents early and bury them before they can get into any sort of rhythm. While Florida State is used to marching back from deficits, it might not be able to slow the Oregon defense enough to close the gap.
However, if Florida State is able to keep this game close late, it puts itself in familiar territory and a place where it has excelled all season.
ODDS: Oregon (-8)
FUN FACT: Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has the best passer rating of any quarterback in the second half. Mariota’s first-half rating of 173.05 jumps up to 208.85 in the second half, which is actually more than 13 points better than the next player.
PREDICTIONS
Graham: I have a hard time seeing this game as a close contest considering what we’ve seen from both teams this year. Oregon will be the best team the Seminoles have faced all season and the best scoring offense it's faced. While I appreciate Jameis Winston’s ability to motivate his team and lead it in come-from-behind wins, I think he’ll find himself in too deep of a hole in this one. Oregon 45, Florida State 31.
Nick: It feels imperative for Oregon to get out to a big lead in the first half. Florida State is like a crazy cat in the second half of games as it's always finding a way to escape. The undefeated streak ends on Thursday, though it won't be surprising in the slightest if it doesn't. Oregon 34, Florida State 31.
Sam: There's just something about Jameis Winston in big games, he always gets it done. With Oregon's top corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu out, Winston will be able to exploit the Ducks' secondary. Marcus Mariota won't go down easy, but the FSU undefeated streak will continue. Florida State 38, Oregon 34.
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Graham Watson is the editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at dr.saturday@ymail.com or follow her on Twitter! Follow @YahooDrSaturday
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