STARTS
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. TB – Big Ben is off to a modest start, but a matchup against a Tampa Bay defense allowing a 77 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, and the highest QB Rating allowed (117) should help him pick up the pace this weekend. Roethlisberger should have little trouble returning top 10 fantasy QB numbers against a badly struggling Bucs squad.
Stevan Ridley, NE at KC – Ridley is being rewarded for hanging on to the football (0 fumbles in '14), receiving 45 touches combined the past two weeks (compared to just 17 for platoon mate Shane Vereen). Facing a KC defense that is allowing a whopping 5.7 yards per carry to the running back position, Ridley is about as safe a play as any running back can be under the direction of Bill Belichick. Put him down for something in the neighborhood of 20 touches, 80-90 yards and a goal-line plunge.
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Donald Brown, SD vs. JAC – Brown had the anti-Midas touch in Week 3, failing to turn a whopping 36 touches against Buffalo into fantasy gold. But the ridiculous workload should continue for the former Colt this weekend as San Diego is without running backs Ryan Mathews (for a few more weeks) and Danny Woodhead (for the season). The Chargers have few other options (Branden Oliver as a garbage time sleeper?) against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed a touchdown and 80-plus yards to each featured back it has faced this season. Brown should keep the Jags' generosity streak alive.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. BUF – As noted by Michael Salfino in his Football by the Numbers column, Hopkins is garnering a healthy 25 percent of his team's targets and, among those wideouts getting at least 20 percent of their team's looks, he leads those receivers in yards per target (11.9). Hopkins is currently No. 12 among receivers in fantasy points, and that doesn't include a one-handed 51-yard grab last week (which might have been the catch of the year) that was called back because of a penalty. Against a Buffalo secondary allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the WR position, look for Hopkins to turn in a line of 75-plus yards and a touchdown.
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN vs. ATL – Patterson has managed just five touches in each of his first three games. But don't be surprised if he gets to handle the pigskin double-digit times on Sunday with the Vikings missing key offensive playmakers Adrian Peterson and tight end Kyle Rudolph. With QB Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start and the Vikings struggling to score points (just 16.7 per game), Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner is likely to look to Patterson in a variety of ways (bubble screens, reverses, short crossing routes, etc) in an effort to bust him loose. It'll likely take more than five touches this time, but I think Patterson matches his Week 1 fantasy totals (128 YFS, TD) against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 10th-most points per game (24).
Delanie Walker, TEN at IND – After practicing on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday, Walker (shoulder) has a good shot to play this weekend against a Colts team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the TE position this season. Walker turned in one of his best fantasy performances of his career in a matchup against Indy last season (10/91/1 in Week 11). Walker's chemistry with QB Jake Locker has been the only bright spot in the Titans passing game, as Walker currently sits in the top 5 among tight ends in fantasy scoring. And while Locker looks like a game-time decision (wrist), there'd still be reason for optimism if backup Charlie Whitehurst is forced into action – Whitehurst has shown a preference for the short-range security offered by his tight ends and running backs in the passing game.
SITS
Jay Cutler, Chi vs. GB – As mentioned in this week's Dissenting Opinions article, history for Cutler against Green Bay has not been kind. He's averaging just 162.3 passing yards and owns a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio against his division rivals in his past three meetings. And the Packers have been solid against the pass through three weeks, yielding a QB Rating of 77.1 (the fifth-lowest in the league). With Brandon Marshall battling a sore ankle, I expect Cutler to throw for less than 250 yards en route to a fantasy performance that lands outside the top 12 at the QB position.
Reggie Bush Det, vs. NYJ – Don't mess with the Jets when it comes to running backs in fantasy. Especially those that aren't guaranteed a huge workload. The Jets haven't allowed a touchdown or more than 76 total yards to a running back this season. Last week, they held versatile threat Matt Forte to 76 yards from scrimmage, a 7.6 fantasy tally that was the best any RB has managed in '14 versus Gang Green. With Bush averaging less than 14 touches per game (and proving, once again, to be hit-and-miss from a fantasy standpoint), it's hard to be optimistic about his upside come Sunday.
Chris Johnson, NYJ vs. DET– Jets head coach Rex Ryan emerged from Week 3 talking about the idea of getting running back Chris Ivory more work. After all, Ivory has looked like a far superior back to CJ2K, thus far, averaging 5.7 YPC, more than two yards per carry more than Johnson (3.5). The prospect of a diminished workload is damning considering that this week the Jets face a Detroit run defense that has allowed just 63.7 rushing yards per game, second best in the league behind the Jets.
Reggie Wayne, IND vs. TEN – A couple things work against Wayne this week. The first concern is that Indy jumps out to a big early lead against a struggling Tennessee squad that may be starting Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. If that's the case, Wayne could be the victim of an early exit, as younger guys like Donte Moncrief get some much needed reps. But even if that doesn't prove to be the way the game flows, Wayne still has to deal with a Tennessee secondary that is among the best at limiting opposing receiver fantasy points. Last season, no Colts receiver reached even five fantasy points in either of the two meetings with the Titans.
Eric Decker, NYJ vs. DET – Apparently Jets head coach Rex Ryan is confident that receiver Eric Decker (hamstring) is going to play in Week 4. But fantasy owners should be anything but confident in Decker's ability to supply more than serviceable returns against the Lions. Detroit has allowed just 54 percent of passes to receivers to be completed, and no receiver has reached even 60 receiving yards against the Lions. In fact, name brands like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz and Kelvin Benjamin all put forth their worst fantasy performance of the season against Detroit.
Zach Ertz, PHI at SF – Ertz faces a 49ers defense that will be out for blood after back-to-back losses. And the Gold Members have yet to allow more than 37 receiving yards to an opposing tight end (and that includes Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett). Ertz has thrived on the big play, thus far, as he's only averaging three catches per game, but is getting nearly 20 yards per grab. Against a disciplined 49ers defense that has long been one of the best at defending the TE position, Ertz is far from a TE1 lock.
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