lundi 11 août 2014

Big Board: Eagles' McCoy soars to top


Another year with Chip Kelly should do wonders for LeSean McCoy. (USAT)

The Big Board takes into consideration past returns, current performance and expected future gains in determining who should be included among the top 50 fantasy football players. Essentially, the Big Board is a cheat sheet designed for an owner who is planning to participate in a draft today. Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football default scoring settings are used as the baseline for the Big Board, which is updated on a regular basis during the season.

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Big Board: Football
PlayerPos.vs ECR Stock
1. LeSean McCoy (PHI) RB +1 Touches & YFS leader in 1st year in Kelly's system - no reason Year 2 won't be as good or better
2. Jamaal Charles (KAN) RB -1 Andy Reid is a versatile RB's best friend, and he's never had one more talented than JC
3. Eddie Lacy (GNB) RB +2 Love the offensive upside in GB; Top 4 fantasy RB from Week 5 thru Week 17
4. Adrian Peterson (MIN) RB -1 10+ TDs 7 straight seasons; Next time he finishes out of top 6 fantasy RBs in PPG will be his 1st
5. Matt Forte (CHI) RB -1 Trestman's system amped up his aerial #'s (75 rec), afforded him plenty of running room (4.6 ypc)
6. Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR +2 With Decker gone, likely to lead all WRs in TDs for the 2nd straight season
7. Calvin Johnson (DET) WR -1 God's gift to WRs has finished 2nd, 1st and 1st in fantasy PPG at WR over past 3 seasons
8. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB +3 3-year averages of 1,350 rush yards, 13 TDs; Backup RB Michael likely to steal 6-8 touches per
9. Jimmy Graham (NOR) TE -2 Top Jimmy offers consistent top-level WR numbers from the TE position
10. Dez Bryant (DAL) WR -1 Once again, woeful Dallas D should be a major boon for Dez's fantasy numbers
11. Julio Jones (ATL) WR +5 Foot history no bueno, but huge upside otherwise as Gonzo's 120 targets are up for grabs
12. A.J. Green (CIN) WR +1 Likely a few less looks as CIN goes more run heavy, but still a good bet for 90+ catches, 10+ TDs
13. Brandon Marshall (CHI) WR +1 Consistency king has 7 straight 1,000-yard campaigns, and has 100+ catches in 5 of those years
14. Giovani Bernard (CIN) RB +4 No. 16 fantasy RB as a rookie, and now looking at an expected 50+ extra touches
15. Peyton Manning (DEN) QB +4 Have to expect regression from record-breaking '13, but that could still be 5k pass yds, 40+ TDs
16. Drew Brees (NOR) QB +11 Past 3-year average is insane: 5,272 passing yards, 44.3 combined pass/rush TDs
17. Montee Ball (DEN) RB -5 Moreno thrived with all the Nickel/Dime looks that DEN sees, now it's Ball's turn
18. DeMarco Murray (DAL) RB -8 Like the '10-'11 version of Run-DMC, major fantasy production comes w/ DNP expectations
19. Alshon Jeffery (CHI) WR +2 Only lagged in TDs (7, only 3 in red zone) in '13, which shouldn't be long-term issue @ his size
20. Aaron Rodgers (GNB) QB +4 Has finished top 2 in fantasy at QB 5 times, and GB planning to push tempo more than ever in '14
21. Jordy Nelson (GNB) WR -1 GB going to shoot for break-neck pace on offense, which is great for a go-to guy like Jordy
22. Andre Ellington (ARI) RB +7 Could be a middle class version of Jamaal Charles given elusiveness and receiving abilities
23. Antonio Brown (PIT) WR +3 With Cotchery/Sanders departures, Brown should be a shoo-in for another 100 catches
24. Arian Foster (HOU) RB -7 Solid 4.5 YPC in injury-plagued '13, but HOU off. limited TD opps - still a concern, as is health
25. Zac Stacy (STL) RB -2 A No-nonsense grinder who has good opportunity to bull way to 1,200+ yards, 10+ TDs
26. Ryan Mathews (SDG) RB +9 Was a top 6 fantasy RB over 2nd-half of '13; SD is very run-centric (2nd-most RB carries in '13)
27. Le'Veon Bell (PIT) RB -12 Not very good at breaking the long ones, but his work in pass game and red zone make up for it
28. Toby Gerhart (JAC) RB +10 JAC not a ripe environment for a fantasy RB, but an expected major workload definitely helps
29. Alfred Morris (WAS) RB -7 HC Gruden's love of the pass could see Morris' carries continue to decline in '14
30. Julius Thomas (DEN) TE +9 He's playing for a new contract, and he's fighting for all the RZ targets that Decker left behind
31. Randall Cobb (GNB) WR -3 If he can stay healthy, he's a PPR machine that can also do damage in the rushing & return games
32. Victor Cruz (NYG) WR +5 Bounce back buzz as NYG looking to feed him the ball often by moving him around in formation.
33. Roddy White (ATL) WR +9 Fought thru injuries in '13, but was top 10 fantasy WR over final 5 weeks as his health returned
34. Reggie Bush (DET) RB +7 Finished among top 10 fantasy RBs in '13, and potential in DET remains ripe for a repeat
35. Rashad Jennings (NYG) RB +8 Nice yardage and PPR value as lead RB for NYG, but rookie Williams slated to steal goal line work
36. Bishop Sankey (TEN) RB +19 Although a bit undersized, rookie has 3-down skills and no worrisome competition at RB in TEN
37. Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) WR +15 Dynamic in receive/rush/return games and OC Turner called NFL-high 680 passes in CLE in '13
38. Cam Newton (CAR) QB +24 Top 4 fantasy QB in each of 1st three seasons, and CAR has no plans to limit his lethal running
39. C.J. Spiller (BUF) RB -9 Unfortunately, looking at another season of F-Jax stealing goal-line and passing down work
40. Doug Martin (TAM) RB -15 RBBC concerns abound in TB; 27% of career fantasy PTS came in 2 of his 22 games played
41. Rob Gronkowski (NWE) TE -8 Appears on target for Week 1, but health history creates huge gap between his floor and ceiling
42. Pierre Garcon (WAS) WR -8 Will lose some looks to D-Jax, Reed, but WAS likely to pass even more w/ HC Gruden
43. Vincent Jackson (TAM) WR -12 He's not a PPR stud, but you can pretty much count on him for 1,200 yards, 7-8 TDs
44. Keenan Allen (SDG) WR -12 More tactician than physical standout, but go-to status likely worth another top 15-20 WR finish
45. Matthew Stafford (DET) QB +1 Can count on high pass volume, and has WR Tate, TE Ebron now to go w/ MegaTron
46. Matt Ryan (ATL) QB +18 ATL had to deal with all kinds of injury woes on offense in '13, yet Ryan still finished top 12 @ QB
47. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR -7 QB Palmer is more proficient in short-intermediate range, and that fits Fitz (No. 16 WR in '13)
48. Andre Johnson (HOU) WR -12 Have to be a bit concerned w/ health (hammy), QB (Fitzpatrick), motivation (wants out of town)
49. Percy Harvin (SEA) WR +5 Despite run-heavy offense, SEA knows it needs to mix his big-play ability in liberally
50. Vernon Davis (SFO) TE +18 Had 15 TDs in 18 games (inc. playoffs) in '13, and a TD in 6 of 8 games playing w/ Crabtree

ON THE BUBBLE:

(QBs) Nick Foles, Phi; Andrew Luck, Ind; Robert Griffin III, Was; Tony Romo, Dal; Jay Cutler, Chi; Tom Brady, NE; Russell Wilson, Sea; Colin Kaepernick, SF; Ben Roethlisberger, Pit

(RBs) Frank Gore, SF; Shane Vereen, NE; Lamar Miller, Mia; Joique Bell, Det; Ray Rice, Bal; Trent Richardson, Ind; Carlos Hyde, SF; Stevan Ridley, NE

(WRs) Michael Floyd, Ari; Mike Wallace, Mia; Wes Welker, Den; Jeremy Maclin, Phi; T.Y. Hilton, Ind; Terrance Williams, Dal; Torrey Smith, Bal; Michael Crabtree, SF; DeSean Jackson, Was; Marques Colston, NO; Julian Edelman, NE; Reggie Wayne, Ind; Brandin Cooks, NO; Josh Gordon, Cle

(TEs) Jordan Cameron, Cle; Greg Olsen, Car; Jason Witten, Dal


Note: "vs. ECR" compares my rank to the Expert Consensus Rank (ECR) as compiled by FantasyPros.






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