The NBA’s initial playoff weekend made a loser out of outfits from Boston, Toronto, and Dallas. What odds should we give these spiraling crews as they attempt to even things up in Game 2 on Tuesday?
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Boston vs. Cleveland
The Downfall
Boston looked fantastic to start game one. The ball was moving offensively, Cleveland seemed a half step short in catching up to the Celtic spacing, Kelly Olynyk was hitting from behind the arc and at the rim, and Boston peeled off a four-point lead heading into the second quarter behind the sort of attack that led the C’s to that unexpected playoff berth. Jokes were made, beers were chugged, and ABC even went into commercial following that first quarter with a stone cold classic of a Boston song.
The Cavaliers then doubled-down on the sort of play that made them the most fearsome team in the Eastern Conference over 2014-15’s final half. LeBron James whipped touchdown passes to Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson kept up his brilliant offensive glasswork from the regular season, and Kyrie Irving pretended he was playing the Timberwolves in the middle of February – the guy torched Boston’s perimeter defense on his way toward 30 points on 21 shots. Cleveland withstood a few Celtic spurts on its way toward a 113-100 win.
The Redemption
If Celtics coach Brad Stevens wants go nutty with things, the ball is in his well-versed court.
Celtic swingman Evan Turner’s effort is there, the guy truly does work hard on both ends, but he was badly outplayed on both sides of the ball in Game 1. Meanwhile, though the strict raw plus/minus is noisy, the Cavs were outscored by eight points when supersub Isaiah Thomas was on the court. The Celtics could very well win a game against a loping Cleveland team with Thomas again coming off of the pine, but why wait? A smaller lineup that would pit Avery Bradley against LeBron and Marcus Smart on Kyrie Irving could be the answer.
It’s a gimmick, to be sure, but let’s not pretend that the entire post-Paul Pierce Celtics era hasn’t been one big proving ground. The team is an asset collection mode, and while Stevens would no doubt want to be coaching a goodly chunk of his current players when the C’s do turn the corner in a few years, the second-year coach is already playing with house money. Guaranteed money.
LeBron James’ teams are always at their best when he acts as a surveyor, as was the case in Game 1 with Kyrie Irving teeing off. If the C’s force LeBron and J.R. Smith to attack purported mismatches, losing ball movement along the way, Boston could shock us yet again.
Odds of a Game 2 Victory
Your chance in a fistfight after running up to John Lydon and calling him “Sid.”
Toronto vs. Washington
The Downfall
For the second playoff opener in a row, Toronto paired a loud crowd and a bleep-happy team executive with an embarrassing home victory. The Raptors again seemed to chest-bump themselves into exhaustion, barely registering offensively in a 93-86 overtime loss. Washington destroyed Toronto on the glass, it made role players like Amir Johnson and Tyler Hansbrough act as loose-ball focal points, and it encouraged Raptor guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan into doing things on their own.
That didn’t quite work out, as the two former All-Stars combined to miss 22 out of 30 shots, with Lowry fouling out before an overtime period that saw Toronto manage just four points in five minutes. Helpers Lou Williams and Terrence Ross also combined to miss two-thirds of their 27 shots (Ross is now 17-58 from the field in his eight-game playoff career, a tidy 29.3 percent), while Washington managed a steady stream of sound out-of-timeout plays in the win.
The Redemption
Even while struggling to pile up the wins in the second half of the season, Toronto still managed to act as one of the NBA’s top offensive teams as winter rolled into spring. Washington remains a stout defensive outfit, but they will take plays, sets, and entire quarters off.
The trick is movement. The Raps kept combatants on their heels during the regular season with penetration and quick hits along the baseline from helpers like Ross and DeRozan. Lou Williams would make the veritable shots that you’d seemingly be just fine with, and Amir Johnson would thrive in scrummy pick and roll setups. If Toronto can catch Washington napping, fat and sassy with its Game 1 theft of the home court, the Wiz might not be bothered to catch up with, say, a 64-49 deficit partway through the third quarter.
Odds of a Game 2 Victory
The same as your likelihood of stealing two warm beers to take to your room at your parents’ New Year’s Eve party. Enough misdirection and common sense and you’re in, pal.
Dallas vs. Houston
The Downfall
For all the about-to-get-annoying, guys talk about “Playoff Rondo” showing up in Game 1 (and he briefly did!), “2011 Dwight Howard” also showed up for the Rockets. The Rox may have been smarting from Dallas owner Mark Cuban’s comments from earlier in April during this 118-108 win on Saturday evening (Corey Brewer especially) but the team proved that it really doesn’t need any extra motivation in pulling out a win over a Mavs team that is struggling to play better than the sum of its parts.
Every Rocket advantage, save for the superb play of James Harden, seemed to have a Dallas connection.
Trevor Ariza outplayed the Maverick he was hired to replace in the returning Chandler Parsons, while helping lock down Monta Ellis on the other end. Former Maverick champion Jason Terry scored 16 points on a very 2005-esque Jason Terry’ish 10 shots, Brewer hit 3-4 treys on his way toward 15 points, and Howard (who spurned the Mavs in 2013 free agency) tallied 11 points, five boards and five blocks in just 18 foul-addled minutes.
The Redemption
This will be a tough one.
For a championship contender, the Rockets sure are snakebitten. The team played its best with Dwight Howard dominating in Game 1, but he’s hardly been someone to rely upon this season while working through over a decade’s worth of hard fouls and bad jokes, and his timing was clearly off as he racked up five fouls in just under 18 minutes. Still, this hardly means Dallas has an in.
Chandler Parsons and Devin Harris have been upgraded from “questionable” to a “game-time decision” for Game 2, which means they’ll likely go but they’ll also likely be hampered by both a clearly lingering knee (Parsons) and often-debilitating turf toe (Harris) issues. Dirk Nowitzki looked sublime in Game 2, and there is the chance that Amar’e Stoudemire could make a few more chippies or reserve Al-Farouq Aminu could conjure up more foul woes for Houston with his uncanny rebounding, but this will be a tough charge. Even a classic Rondo performance might not be enough, assuming coach Rick Carlisle would even sign off on letting Rajon take over as he sees fit.
Odds of a Game 2 Victory
Maybe the teacher will forget to ask us to pass in the homework?
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