Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on ESPN
ARIZONA CARDINALS
How they got here: By streaking out to an early lead on the rest of the NFC and then hanging on for dear life as injuries hit and other teams found their feet. Arizona began the year 9-1, and head coach Bruce Arians looked like a genius. Since then, though, the Cardinals have dropped four of their last six and lost multiple key players to injury.
Key Player: Patrick Peterson. How much of a shutdown corner is Peterson these days? His ability to halt the Carolina offense, particularly rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, will determine how successful Carolina can be through the air. The run defense is more of a concern, especially since Carolina has so many different options on the ground.
X Factor: Running back Kerwynn Williams. Ryan Lindley will have enough trouble throwing against the Carolina D, but if Williams is able to open up the field and keep at least some of the defense from dropping back into passing lanes, Arizona could mask its quarterback deficiencies.
Intangibles: Arizona is the virtual opposite of Carolina from a schedule perspective; the Cardinals started hot and cooled to room temperature. The quarterback situation is only the most visible crack in Arizona's previously sterling armor. It's strange to think that an 11-win team comes in as an underdog to an under-.500 one, but that's exactly the case here. Arizona just needs to tap into the mojo that helped it win big against virtually everyone earlier this season.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
How they got here: By being the best of a very bad lot. The Panthers limped faster than the rest of the historically awful NFC South, and are in the playoffs despite managing just one win in a stretch from Sept. 15 to December 7. But this isn't the same terrible Panthers team that seemed to play itself into the ground during a seven-game winless streak. The team is healthy across the board, the defense has grown stout, and the running game is now an effective complement to the passing game. Carolina has won its last four, and there's no reason to think it won't add to that run Saturday.
Key Player: Cam Newton, of course. The Panthers quarterback has to play at his expected level, but if he does, and he's able to rally Carolina to an unexpected win, expect his name to start surfacing in those "elite" conversations. Newton's arm strength is always a threat, but against an often-porous Arizona D, Newton's ability to run the ball could be a huge element of Carolina's attack.
X Factor: You could look at any of half a dozen players on the defensive side, but keep an eye on defensive end Charles Johnson. Like most of the D, Johnson is peaking at the right time; he's had eight tackles and 2.5 sacks over the last three games. You know guys like Luke Kuechly are going to play at a high level; when they're complemented by guys like Johnson, they'll pose that many more problems for Arizona's shaky offense.
Intangibles: The Panthers are riding momentum, and thanks to a favorable NFL policy on division winners, even terrible ones, they draw a home game in the first round. That could be enough to help the team to an unlikely division-round berth.
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Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter.
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