Greg Cosell's Playoff Preview: Bengals offense, and Lions' keys to win

COLTS AT BENGALS

A lot has been and will be made of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton for this AFC playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts, and the Bengals have showed us what they think of Dalton heading into the playoffs.

The Bengals have minimized him. He’s not a comfortable player right now, and the Bengals know that. So they run a very limited pass offense. Dalton is not seeing things clearly right now, he is not a confident thrower at this point, and the throw must be defined or Dalton will not turn it loose.

Sometimes even when it is defined, Dalton isn’t turning it loose. Against the Steelers last week, Dalton threw a 5-yard touchdown to tight end Jermaine Gresham, and that looks fine, but the play he was supposed to make was wide open and he didn’t throw it. Then Gresham bailed him out by fighting into the end zone.

Against a three-man rush and eight-man “Tampa 2” zone coverage concept with two deep safeties, the play was designed to hit Mohamed Sanu off play action. The Bengals got just hat they wanted. Safety Mike Mitchell attacked the run action and Sanu was wide open. Dalton didn’t throw to him. He hit Gresham in the flat instead.

Just watch how open Sanu is in the end zone.

The Bengals’ passing game doesn't attack at the intermediate levels much at all. Their passing game will be even more limited without receiver A.J. Green against the Colts, too. But the Bengals have a couple of running backs that can help them.

Jeremy Hill is a good back. He has very good foot quickness and lateral agility for a 235-pound back, and has the speed to bounce to the perimeter when needed. But you can’t give it to him every play. Fellow running back Giovani Bernard becomes a big player for the Bengals because of how they’ve been using him.

When Bernard is in the game, they’ll line him up in different spots including the slot, and that will cause issues for the defense. I think the Bengals realize that’s how he is used best, as a Darren Sproles-type player and not a foundation back.

And example of what Bernard's versatility came on a 17-yard score against the Steelers. From an empty set with Bernard in the slot, the Steelers had an initial bracket coverage on Bernard with linebacker Vince Williams to the outside and linebacker Jason Worilds to the inside. Worilds jammed Bernard on a shallow cross and then was unable to run with him.

Bernard is a player to watch against the Colts, especially because Indianapolis' linebackers are not very good in coverage.

LIONS AT COWBOYS

The Lions’ run defense against the Cowboys’ run offense is a critical element to this game, although that’s not a profound statement. The Cowboys run about 75 percent of the time on first down, the highest percentage in the league. The Lions have the best run defense in the NFL. Their defensive line is very good, as are linebackers Tahir Whitehead and DeAndre Levy.

Then the question becomes if the Lions can get the Cowboys to throw a little more than they want to. Romo has the second-fewest passes of any quarterback who started the whole season (he missed one game). The offense is not built around Romo. He has had a great year, but the offense works through DeMarco Murray. They haven’t been in too many games in which Romo had to really air it out. If he has to do that, how does that change things?

So there are two keys for the Lions to win: First, they have to get the Cowboys to pass the ball more than they want, and second, quarterback Matthew Stafford has to be sharp.

Stafford has been uneven this season. I think he has tried really hard this year to get better in his footwork and balance. But the improvement has been incremental. It’s a new offense, basically the New Orleans Saints’ offense, and there’s a lot there to master. Also, the Lions can’t run the ball so a lot of pressure goes on him.

One thing to watch is that the Lions’ offensive line isn’t particularly athletic, and that might make for a bad matchup. The Cowboys don’t have a great pass rusher, but they use a lot of stunts on the line to create a rush. Against unathletic offensive lines, that can create a problem. It’s worth watching, because if the Cowboys can get to Stafford and force him into a bad game, the Lions' chances of winning at Dallas will shrink dramatically.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.

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