Birmingham Bowl: Can Florida finish above .500?

Birmingham Bowl

Florida (6-5) vs. East Carolina (8-4)

Birmingham, Ala.

Jan. 3, 2015

Ah, how fortunes can change over the course of the season.

Three weeks into the 2014 college football season, someone could have made a compelling case that this matchup would be in a different and bigger bowl. A week after a loss to a South Carolina team that was still in the top 25, East Carolina had just beat a Virginia Tech team fresh off a win against Ohio State. Yeah, Florida had just survived a triple-overtime game against Kentucky at home, but the Gators were 2-0 and the hopes (dreams? visions of a miracle?) for an SEC title were still intact.

Fast-forward to the bowl season and Florida has an interim coach and ECU is wondering "what-if?" after three losses in its last five games.

East Carolina enters the Birmingham Bowl third in the country in passing yards. The Pirates average nearly 370 yards a game through the air while Florida gives up 195, a mark that's 22nd in the country. What will give?

If the ECU offense vs. the Florida defense is a matchup of strengths, then the Florida offense vs. the ECU defense is the opposite. While ECU's defense ranks in the top 50 in total yardage, the Pirates gave up 54 to CIncinnati, 32 to Tulsa and 32 to UCF over the season's final five weeks.

But can Florida take advantage? The Gators will have to use the running game to take pressure off Treon Harris. Over his last three games, Harris has completed 40 percent of his passes, though he threw 11 and 12 passes against South Carolina and Eastern Kentucky, respectively. If Florida can control the tempo similar to the Georgia game, it's in good shape. If Harris is forced to throw more than 15 or 20 times, the Gators are in real trouble.

Vegas odds: Florida (-7)

FUN FACT

This is the second meeting between Florida and East Carolina. The first happened in 1983 when the Pirates traveled to Gainesville and lost 24-17. Florida finished that season No. 6 in the AP poll and the Gators' offensive coordinator was Mike Shananan.

PREDICTIONS

Graham: East Carolina has a stellar offense, but it hasn't seen a defense as good as Florida's. The Gators have had a tough season, but this is a big opportunity to end the year on a high note. Florida 21, ECU 10.

Nick: I'll be the only one believing that ECU has a chance against the Gators. But I refuse to use whatever the result is as part of any judgment about the SEC. ECU 20, Florida 17.

Sam: East Carolina seemed like one of those Group of Five teams that looked like it could shake some things up before fading fast. Florida isn't much to write home about either, but I think the Gators will handle the Pirates, especially on defense. Florida 24 ECU 21.

For more ECU news visit PirateIllustrated.com.

For more Florida news visit InsideTheGators.com.

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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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